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I feel like putting out some predictions for this fall's elections while it's still anyone's guess as to what happens.
So here they are:
First things first, Democrats will retain majorities in both the Senate and House, but the size of their majority will be reduced.
There are too many races in the House for me to follow them, but what little I hear seems to indicate that everyone from the House you've heard of is totally safe -- Alan Grayson, Anthony Weiner, Nancy Pelosi, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Michelle Bachmann, Joe Wilson, etc. none are likely to get unseated.
I'm guessing the Democratic House majority will get cut roughly in half, from a +77 seat majority to something more like +40.
In the Senate, Democrats are going to lose in North Dakota (Byron Dorgan's seat), Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln's seat), Delaware (Joe Biden's seat, presently held by Ted Kaufmann), and Indiana (Evan Byah's seat).
Democrats will retain these hotly contested seats: Nevada (Harry Reid's seat), Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter's seat, though Joe Sestak will be the nominee), Illinois (Barack Obama's seat, presently held by Roland Burris), California (Barbara Boxer's seat).
Democrats will win, as in take from Republicans, the following seats: Ohio (George Voinovich is retiring, but Lee Fisher (D) will defeat Rob Portman (D)), Florida (Either the Crist/Rubio split will propel Ken Meek to a win, or Crist will win and caucus with Dems).
Colorado seems to be a pure toss-up, in my mind.
If I'm right, that means Dems will go from a 59/41 majority to a 57/43 or 56/44 majority (+/- Colorado), which is still a bigger majority than Bush ever had when he was in office.
Nate Silver's guess right now is that Dems will lose a net of 4 seats, which is just one more than me (and that forecast is a few weeks out of date, he hadn't seen the latest polling in PA like I have).
So there's the NetRunner 2010 Election forecast, 6 months out edition.
Disclaimer: These are non-scientific wild-ass guesses (SWAGs).
- NetRunner